It started with a very steep rise in November and December 2024, fuelled by growing concerns about the impact the deteriorating weather was having on the West African crop and how much further Black pod disease and Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus might spread. These were very negative supply factors which drove prices higher.
We had already pre sold most of our Christmas range by this time – at prices we had calculated before these increases. This meant our profit was really hit as we had to shoulder these last minute out of nowhere price increases.
Then in January 2025 we entered a period of relative stability, albeit at the very high prices we ended 2024 with. There continued to be worries about the impact of the harshest and driest Harmattan winds since 2019 on the impending mid-season crop, due to start in April. But there also started to be worries about falling demand and these two factors balanced out.
Falling demand is something we have seen. Our stockists order less per month than they used to. Consumers are buying less chocolate due to health reasons. There is less money to spend on treats. Price increases plus less demand doesn’t make for a very profitable business. But we wanted to and still do – ride this wave and see if it returns to a better balance. We have shouldered the increases ourselves taking a hit to profits instead of increasing our pricing to stockists and direct customers.
From the beginning of February 2025 onwards, spurred by reports from some of the world’s largest users of chocolate such as Nestle, Mondelez, Lindt and Hershey, the focus shifted to worries about falling global demand. Up to now the assumption had been that demand was holding up well, but signs were now starting to emerge that high prices were in fact impacting demand.
There were even some technical issues reducing demand because fewer buyers could afford the margin required to hedge future purchases and so producer nations have not been able to sell as much of their forward crop as they might have wanted to. At the same time, reports of Ghana’s cocoa arrivals being up 70% year on year helped somewhat to ease tightness in supply.
So, what next?
Most analysts are now predicting either a small deficit or a small surplus this year. Whilst having supply and demand in balance is obviously a much better outcome than last year’s massive deficit, it won’t do anything to improve global stock levels. This means that the market is likely to remain tight for the rest of 2025, which in turn means that prices are unlikely to come down much, if at all.
All of this has impacted our business. We have so far shouldered the increases by not increasing prices to our stockists nor to our direct customers but I’m not sure how much longer we can take the hit fully. It is an uncertain time for us and has made every stockist order, every direct order mean that little bit extra to us. We always do a happy dance for any order but now that dance is a little more intense.
Thank you to our stockists for continuing to support our business and to our loyal direct customers – we really do adore each one of you.
Laura and Richard Lefevre
Lefevre Chocolate
Lefevre Chocolate 